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| Holidays are perfect time to buy a home By Steve Hyman--How is the Market? Published/Last Modified on Wednesday, November 15, 2006 12:59 PM PST This is the time of year I affectionately call "White Death." It starts right before Thanksgiving and extends through the Super Bowl. During this festive time of the year there are so many distractions going on that buying a home drops down on most peoples' priority list. So much to do, so little time. You have Thanksgiving, kids coming home from college, relatives visiting, shopping, Christmas, New Year's and parties. And for the guys, there's the endless number of football games. With all that going on, shopping for a home falls off most radar screens. And that's too bad for you and, of course, your Realtor. That's because this is historically the best time of the year to make a deal. In most industries, there are certain times of the year when the pendulum favors the buyer. For the astute shopper, it's great if you can take advantage of these lulls in the sales cycle. The car business usually cuts prices in the late summer before the new models come out. Retailers slash prices on Dec. 26. On the flip side, you'll pay top dollar if you buy a new model car when its introduced or the latest fashions at the beginning of the season. It shouldn't be a surprise that there's seasonality in the real estate business too. The market gets active after the Super Bowl through early summer. Then it slows down a bit as people take vacations. It heats up again after Labor Day and goes strong till White Death. And then, as the name so aptly implies, everything slows down again. Of course, the big question is can you time your purchase to take advantage of the slow selling cycles? Sometimes you can and sometimes you can't. If your car won't last till the summer, you'll pay more. If your wife wants that beautiful cashmere sweater now and won't wait until the day after Christmas, you're going to be buying it now for full price or suffer the consequences. Same with houses. Sometimes people are flexible with their timing and can take advantage of a good situation. And sometimes they can't. What makes this White Death different from recent years is that its happening during what can only be described as a bad year for sellers. Sales volume is very low; 2006 will go down as one of the worst years since 1990 in terms of number of units sold. It's even possible that we will sell fewer homes this year than when Devil's Slide went out in 1995. Home prices dropped in the third quarter making it likely that the full-year prices will be below that of 2005. And on top of that, there's a lot of inventory. So maybe this is giving you an idea that this would make a wonderful Christmas present. Not only would it be enthusiastically received, but it will give you an endless list of future presents. Next year, you can follow it up with that plasma surround sound system, then a new kitchen followed by a sumptuous master bath. You now have things planned for the next few years. You only have to figure out how to pay for it. If this is making you want to go shopping, let me tell you where the homes are on the coast. In Half Moon Bay, as of early November, there were 60 total listings with 46 available. El Granada had 34 total listings with 27 available. Moss Beach and Montara had 49 listings with 43 available. And the South Coast had 24 listings with 19 available. Looking at the inventory by price, you'll find five homes for sale for less than $500,000 with two available. In the $500,000 to $750,000 range, there were 23 listings with 17 available. In the $750,000 to $1 million range, there were 62 total listings with 46 available. In the $1 million to $1.5 million range, there were 49 listings and 45 available. And for those fortunate few who made a killing on Google stock, there were 28 listings for more than $1.5 million with 25 available. So if you're looking for a deal, there's plenty out there now in almost every price category and every town. How long the market will remain soft is anybody's guess. Maybe it will be soft for six more months or maybe it will turn around in January. Nobody knows. I always tell people that if the crystal ball on my desk worked, I'd be on my yacht. Instead, I'm spending a Sunday afternoon writing this. • Steven Hyman is the broker and owner of Century 21 Sunset Properties. He can be reached at 726-6346 or at www.century21sunset.com. |